Saturday musings
Feeling a little better today. It helped that I ended up drunk at a karaoke bar last night at 2am — sorry Sebastian, if I’d known earlier I’d have given you a shout out!
So, a few things seem clear at this point. I think Obama’s biggest threat is losing the argument on why he shouldn’t just be Clinton’s running mate. I think the superdelegates see the race — and each side’s supporters — becoming increasingly polarized, and the obvious solution is to put both candidates on the ticket. Of course, if Obama’s ahead in pledged delegates and the popular vote, which he will be, he should be at the top of the ticket, right? Here’s where Clinton has a checkmate. Her candidacy obviously is enhanced by including Obama, and his is diminished by including Clinton. So while Clinton’s out there touting the Clinton/Obama ticket, he won’t be doing do the same. This leaves his potential superdelegates vulnerable to the “unity” argument of backing Hillary and getting a “two-fer.” Clinton knows that superdelegates above all fear alienating constituents, and so offering up the “please everyone” option could become irresistable. It also doesn’t help that a poll was put out showing that only about half of democratic voters will mind if the superdelegates override the popular vote.
Also: notice what this says about Clinton’s strategy. She now knows she cannot win without Obama on the ticket, period. She knows that’s the only way to persuade the superdelegates to override the popular will.
To reverse this course of things, Obama needs to take control of the argument again, and show why HE is the standard-bearer for the party, and Clinton is not. The conventional wisdom is that the two candidates are virtually identical on policy. Of course, this was Clinton’s “frontrunner” strategy when all she needed to do was mirror her opponents and reap benefits from her aura of inevitability. But now, she’s pivoted, and Obama needs to seize on the opportunity it opens up. She’s now the Lieberman hawk democrat (Thanks to Keith Olbermann for pointing that out!). Obama needs to point out forcefully that she has abandoned the democratic platform and embraced McCain, and that the party has a real choice.
I’ve said a few times that the only way I can stomach this primary is to realize that Obama’s test is now — not the general. He has to defeat this brand of politics before he can transcend it (I think Andrew Sullivan said that…). It’s also a test of the democratic party — and I think Obama should frame it that way. Do we want to be Lieberman democrats with Rove tactics? Or do we want to actually put our money where are mouth is, and get behind the candidate who doesn’t apologize or hide from liberal values but champions them, who doesn’t just abandon liberal views for fear-mongering when backed into a corner.
This Clinton move should be familiar to any democratic leaders who’ve been around awhile. It’s the classic Clinton triangulation — and it’s a preview of what we’ll get if she is our President. Her back is against the wall, so she takes a hard right and starts parroting a republican viewpoint that goes against the democratic platform (i.e., “tough” foreign policy) to try to drum up a little panic, and in the next breath talks about putting Obama on her ticket. She uses republican talking points to smack the “liberal” wing of the democratic party, polarizes the party into fierce factions, and then offers up the “compromise” — her on top of the ticket. And superdelegates feel like they might not like it, but it’s the best way to prevent the civil war that Clinton herself fomented.
There’s still time to turn it around. It’s troubling to me that Keith Olbermann literally is the best surrogate for Obama right now — and really the only one on the national stage pointing out the meaning of Clinton’s pivot toward McCain. Obama needs his surrogates to get out their and help him.
At the end of the day though, if the superdelegates have retreated to fear over this whole thing, we’ll have our answer on what the party stands for.
UPDATE: Phew. Today Obama ruled out running as VP. This is the first time he’s said that — normally he just says the whole question is premature. I hope this means he realizes how threatening the suggestion is. He has to rule it out early and often. But he also has to win the argument on why it’s a bad idea.
UPDATE II: Bill’s laying out the logic for the dream ticket, calling it an “unstoppable force.” Obama simply has to refute this, now. Whatever else you say about the Clintons — they’re making a compelling argument on this right now, and Obama isn’t making any argument.
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